Canada Probability Index

The Canada Probability Index aggregates prediction market signals and compares them with institutional bond market expectations into one transparent reference.

△ Prediction markets price a rate cut at <1%, bond markets at 8%. Bond markets are pricing significantly more dovish than prediction markets.

Source	Cut	Hold	Hike
Prediction Markets Kalshi event contracts	1%	99%	1%
Bond Markets OIS / CORRA futures	8%	92%	—
CPI Composite Weighted average	4%	95%	1%

March 18 Resolution

Bank of Canada — Hold ✓

The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18, 2026. Prediction markets implied a 98% probability of a hold. Bond markets implied 92%. Both sources were correct. This was the Canada Probability Index's first tracked resolution.

Methodology

The Canada Probability Index aggregates prediction market contract pricing from platforms including Kalshi and compares it with institutional expectations derived from overnight index swap (OIS) and CORRA futures markets. Prediction market probabilities reflect crowd-sourced expectations from participants with real financial stakes. Bond market probabilities reflect institutional positioning by professional traders. The CPI Composite is a weighted average across sources.

What do markets predict about Wednesday's rate decision?